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Saturday, March 28, 2009

Baltic Dry Index - a Leading Indicator? - by Didier

I didn’t know the BDI and added it immediately to my weekly check list. Thank you.

Rodryk’s last post on the BDI which was instructive for me. Now, we can see that it has been going down for 3 weeks while the markets have been going up for exactly the same period.


I wondered whether the shipping industry could be used as an indicator of a possible recovery of the markets. I compared both the MG776 (index of the US shipping companies) and the BDI as of 2009-03-26. Unfortunately, MG776 follows the main indexes and hit its lows at the same time although the weekly MACD remained very positive. It didn’t bring us any new information compared to the BDI which was up since the second week of December while the markets tumbled as Rodryk pointed it out.

Didier

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