VIX squeezed by Grant C

Trading is about price movements, but really we're measuring human behavior ruled by gut-wrenching fear and elated greed. The VIX, which is a ratio of puts and calls, measures emotional volitality--it moves up, sometimes violently when fear riens and price declines. When the VIX declines, price is stabilizing and usually rallies; the SPX price bars narrow and everywhere it is happytime. The VIX is an easy way to measure the emotional extremes if you use it properly. I say easy, but most traders think of it like the RSI with absolute highs and lows. Not so, the VIX is a relative measurement and needs to be compared against a 10-day MA to give accurate signals--all of which is for a future discussion.

But today, I want to point out a truly remarkable development on the VIX's weekly chart--something that foretells a major move. After the spike to 90 in October 2008 punctuated the market's big move down to SPX sub-800 (the VIX moves opposite the SPX--VIX up, SPX down, and vice versa), the VIX corrected, finally settling in a range about 50% of the move. We've been bouncing steadily between 35-55 week after week for about four months. While it may not seem like it, the VIX has steadily lost volatility indicating that neither fear nor greed is at extremes. Now, we are entering a rare squeeze on the weekly chart, which portends a major and probably violent move in one direction or the other. Though the indicators seem to be on the lowish side, these sideways moves often create unreliable RSI and MACD readings. So, we need to wait a week or so to fit this piece of the puzzle into place, but past experience says that come what may, either greed or fear will soon cause our little world to tremble and shake.