Eric's comment on my post about GLD's daily and weekly charts made me pop up a monthly GLD. Here's my favorite topping formation, a huge 1,2,3 Top formed on bearish divergence with the declining RSI and MACD indicators. If price drops, 65 is about right for a target. If my analysis is correct, then either inflation is not going to be a problem, or gold has finally lost it's value as a monetary subsititute.I bet on the latter--these days, not a lot can be done with gold except wear it.
Grant:
ReplyDeleteI read with great interest your comments about GLD. My preconceived notion is that gold is going up given the level of inflating on the national level that is happening as we speak, but a number of metal stocks found their way to one of my scans that brings up stocks where price is going up and TSV (or elder force) is going down. Your efforts got me to look at metal industry groups a little more closely, and copper looks weak also (price up and TSV down). FCX and SLT look promising for shorts. Thanks for spurring me to act, Grant.
Rick,
ReplyDeleteGlad my ideas are helpful. FCX is also on my possible short list. Also, I'm looking at SMN, the basic material inverse ETF, but it's not ready yet. I notice that GDX, the gold miner ETF looks weak also. Not sure if it's the end for the miners, but pretty sure that gold is over, contrary to popular opinion.
Grant
Hi Grant,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the discussion...I am not sure why my analysis is what it is...Same feeling I got sitting in the back of David Weiss's class on the island of St. Marten. I am well aware of triple mountain tops as I like to call them...I see what you are seeing but something else is being spoken when I look back at my charts...I figure it should resolve itself in 5-9 months and I can pat you on the back and figure out just what I was smoking...But for now I would watch the meandering and look for a good price for longer period call options...maybe just dabble a bit...
Here is another look at my monthly chart zoomed out as far as I can go...Although I am not afraid- I think it looks stunning...
http://i254.photobucket.com/albums/hh81/etfremd/GLDMONTHLY5_2_09.jpg
In a lot of ways I hope I am wrong-I will be glad to buy the beer when we meet!
Good Trading,
Eric
Grant,
ReplyDeleteYour analysis is great and very appreciated. Again sth to be printed out and put on the wall while looking at Gold. - I appreciate also the diversity in opinions out there. Good discussion.
Rodryk
Guys,
ReplyDeleteWell, the nice thing about this is that we should get some idea next week about how things stand. If GLD drops through support, then most likely we go down. If not, then maybe we go up. In any case, good money management will keep us out of trouble!
Grant
Awesome dialogue and graphics gentlemen. Thank you,
ReplyDeleteGordy