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Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Such a long, lovely base by Grant C

Since we had so much fun discussing GLD, I thought I throw out another one--DBA. However, since the price movement is pretty straightforward I doubt if we arouse the same level of opinion. DBA is the agricultural ETF, mostly softs. As you can see on the weekly, it crashed with everything else and has been trading sideways since Oct. 08. The result has been this enormous base, which means that the upside potential is equally enormous. The trick of course is the entry, and for that we need to look at the daily. The daily has a declining 200 DSMA, and a squeeze breakout showing. From past experience, the first time price hits a declining 200 DSMA it sells off. So, I'm waiting for price to come back to the rising 20 EMA, before thinking about buying. The other way to do it, would be to wait until price trades through the 200, and buy on the first pullback, or retest. Still, you could wait until the stock market corrects and the weekly 5-week RSI drifts back. The idea is not to chase an OB ETF, just be patient and wait for a reasonable entry. In any case, we can probably assume that the price of food isn't going down much in the next few months.

3 comments:

  1. I follow DBA too as well as MOO. The latest already reached its EMA200days.

    On a daily basis, RSI14 at a level of 63 shows an overbought condition for that stock. The ERay histogram is also pretty stretched. I hope to grab DBA around 24.85USD or below and MOO around 31.

    Your analysis with your indicators confirms mine. Thank you.

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  2. Hi Grant,

    Okay...It just does not look to sexy...It just seams like it is a slow mover although last week it had a good week- I'd take it! I'd say you are right it needs to smack above the resistance at 27...gaps at 31-35 give hopeful targets...but I fail to see the enormous upside potential...

    Good Trading,
    Eric

    ReplyDelete
  3. Eric,
    Long bases usually indicate the potential for a long move--sort of like the a strong foundation supports a high rise.

    ReplyDelete