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Sunday, August 30, 2009

Here's a way to buy volatility or to hedge a long portfolio by Grant C

Many investors hold long positions as August ends--some because they sell calls against stock, others because of asset allocation, still others because they aren't paying attention, etc. For those thinking about hedging a long portfolio, here's an idea that might help. For others, like myself, who are die hard volatility traders, this idea will work almost as well as options or inverse index ETFs. The VXX is the ETN of the VIX and trades about 3X the S&P. The common method of measuring volatility in the stock market is the VIX, an index based on a ratio between purchased calls vs. puts. Mostly the VIX declines when the market either rallies or goes into a period of complacency or reduced movement. Sort of what happens during the summer months as the big boys go off to the Hamptons to relax. Eventually, they come back and more often than not, they reverse August's action and jam the market into a decline. The VIX, and the VXX, goes up as a sort of "Fear" indicator (more puts being purchased than calls). This is how the Sept-Oct. period got the nick name of the "Death Season". Now, I have no idea if history will repeat itself and fireworks will replace August's inaction, but it is my nature to bet against the extremes. Since the market is at an extreme with complacency or lack of volatility, I'm interested in the other side of that trad, and will use the VXX to implement that strategy. The one thing I've learned about volatility is that it is "extreme" reverting, not "mean" reverting as most of the trading books claim. Price is much more likely to revert to the mean, or an average, and volatility seems to seek the extremes, sort of like water in a pan that is tilted back and worth so it laps at the edges.

7 comments:

  1. THANK YOU for this! What a great, concise explanation of the seasonal tradability of the VIX.

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  2. Mike,
    Good luck with it. Volatility should return soon.
    Grant

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  3. Thanks. One thought is this ETF appears to be illiquid - mean volume of less than 10K shares/day.

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  4. Lee,
    That's odd, I have the VXX at averaging 400K per day. On Tuesday's big move down it traded 1.44 million.
    I find it liquid with decent spreads. Where did you find your info?

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  5. Grant - I scanned through Worden's
    Telechart. I think you're right - perhaps there's number represents blocks of 100. Sorry for the confusion.

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  6. Anyway,
    I closed out this trade yesterday. Will look to establish it again.
    Grant

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  7. Thank you Grant for your explanations. I didn’t know VXX. The average correlation over the last 21 days is 0.90 with VIX. For whatever reason, an exception occurred in august where it went down to 0 but now the curve is up again at 0.86 (Thursday).

    I check the VIX everyday and the weekly macd has been showing a weakness of bears for weeks.VXX brings the volumes and therefore we can use the FI in addition to the macd. I wonder whether the increasing volume especially since mid July means that more and more people expect the return of the volatility or maybe this volume just comes from an increase of its popularity since it is a young ETF born in Feb. 09.

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