When I saw this picture last week, my immediate response was that retailers are not going to have a good Christmas. This picture represents 12% of the world’s container ships that are sitting idle in the ocean off Singapore. The article said that the cost of transporting a 40 ft container of merchandise from China to the UK has fallen from £850 plus fuel charges last year to £180 this year.
This bearish scenario is confirmed by the decline of the Baltic dry index, described in several previous posts on this blog. The index peaked at 11,793 in May 2008, and bottomed at 663 in December 2008. The Baltic Dry Index is now at 2246. The green line represents the price movement of SPY. Would now be a good time to start shorting retail stocks? I have gathered this list of retail related stocks that the Spikers and SpikeTrade Members selected in the last year.
Cheers!
Cheers!
Patricia L
Patricia:
ReplyDeleteThis was an excellent post and very good research and reporting. Thank you for your efforts.
Gordy
Thank you Patricia. You make the link between the BDI which I check with the economical reality. There are so many short term technical bearish signals and so many mid term fundamental reasons to short this market. However, the bullish fever seems not to be over.
ReplyDeleteI don't know what it means but I think it is interesting that very similar stories and photos were in the news back in mid May. Now it is being revived in mid Sept.
ReplyDelete