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Showing posts with label TradingTips. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TradingTips. Show all posts

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Gold: Here’s why holding >$1000 should mean “off to the races”

"This post is an email from Jock G who had helped me prepare my presentation on Trading Gold. I will be speaking baout it in Toronto on October 21 and in Las Vegas on November 20 - Alex"

Every time gold nears $1000, it gets “smacked down”. I wonder why….

Put that into the context of how much easier it was to make progress BEFORE the first assault on the magic number of $1000:


Bernanke and the banksters will once again do everything they can to “smack down” gold if it does rise above $1000. You know that the gov’t leases gold to the “bullion banks” who then short it. (When gold rises, it creates doubts in the value of paper money). If they’re unable to constrain gold’s rise this time, it will mean “the jig is up”.

Longer term, THIS could also be an important factor in breaking the FED’s hold on gold:

China pushes silver and gold investment to the masses

A report suggests that the Chinese government is pushing the general public into buying gold and silver bullion, which could have a dramatic effect on the markets.
Author: Lawrence WilliamsPosted: Thursday , 03 Sep 2009
LONDON -
We are indebted again to Paul Mylchreest's Thunder Road Report for news that will bring big smiles to gold and silver investors everywhere. Apparently China is pushing the idea of buying gold and silver for investment purposes to the general population in the way that Western television sells soap powder. If 1.3 billion Chinese citizens start buying gold and silver, even in tiny quantities, imagine what that will do to the market!
The report notes that China's Central Television, the main state-owned television company, has run a news programme letting the public know how easy it is to buy precious metals as an investment. On silver investment the announcer is quoted as saying " China has introduced its first ever investment opportunity for silver bullion. The bars are available in 500g, 1kg, 2kg and 5kg with a purity of 99.9%. Figures show that gold was fifty times more expensive than silver in 2007, but now that figure has reached over seventy times. Analysts say that silver has been undervalued in recent years. They add that the metal is the right investment for individual investors and could be a good way to cash in."
What appears to have happened in China is a total relaxation of strictures on holding precious metals by the individual with the government pushing gold and silver as an investment option, seemingly at every opportunity. This is a far cry from the situation only a few years ago where the distribution of gold and silver was strictly controlled. Now, the Thunder Road Report notes that every bank will sell gold and silver bullion bars in four different sizes to individuals and gold related investments are said to be soaring in popularity.
Around a year ago, Leyshon Resources managing director, Paul Atherley, in an investor presentation in London - and no doubt delivered elsewhere in the world too - commented that some employees at the company's gold mining project in northern China would, on pay day, go to the local bank and buy a small gold bar as an investment and wealth protector. To an extent we put this down at the time to mining company hype - but this seems to be exactly the same phenomenon noted by Thunder Road. The Chinese are being converted from being the lowest per capita gold consumers in the world to a nation of small precious metals investors. Now, by next year, Chinese consumption of gold is likely to exceed that of India, which has been for years the world's biggest gold market. And one suspects that the potential for gold purchasing by individuals is only in its earliest stages. As more and more Chinese move into the cities and individual wealth grows, this trend is only likely to accelerate.
Paul ends the piece on Chinese gold and silver potential with the following comment: "Simply put, the Chinese government is trying to trigger a national gold craze...and it's working. The Chinese public now has gold trading platforms on steroids.... ...Also, for the first time in history, Chinese investors can even trade gold abroad (in London) with the swipe of a ‘Lucky Gold' card. I can't even get Bank of America to open a foreign currency account."
This may be an overstatement of the case from a precious metals bull - or it may not! Certainly if China is indeed pushing the public to buy gold then there may well be a hidden agenda here. It's unlikely they are doing it and will suddenly pull the rug out from under millions of investors. A cynic (or a raging gold bull) would suggest that this will precede a move to switch a good proportion of the country's reserves into gold which would have a huge effect on the global gold price and could prove disastrous for the dollar. Maybe it's not in China's interests to drive the dollar down too much until it has managed to divest itself of the huge dollar overhang (see the article on Chinese Sovereign Wealth Funds we published yesterday - Chinese sovereign wealth fund dumping dollars for strategic investments like gold ). The country may well already be, of course, surreptitiously building its gold reserves without reporting the build-up.
If the Chinese are indeed beginning to buy gold and silver as the quoted report suggests then this has to be a strong signal that prices are going to rise, and perhaps rise dramatically, in the relatively near future. We await comment from other China watchers for confirmation of the gold and silver buying spree, but with global gold production at best flat and probably in decline, even a small increase in Chinese buying could have a substantial impact on gold and silver prices.
(from Mineweb)

Jock G

Friday, September 4, 2009

A Pullback or a Major Trend Change? What’s Ahead?

"This comes from Stephen M, a very active SpikeTrader whose performance won him an award for Q2-2009" - Alex

Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs was interviewed by Bloomberg on Aug. 28, 2009. Here’s what he had to say, "Investors who think the U.S. economy is recovering are going to get a big shock this fall," said Biderman. "Companies and corporate insiders are signaling that the economy is in much worse shape than conventional wisdom believes." His company, TrimTabs has reported that the actions of U.S. public companies have been bearish. In the past four months, companies have been net sellers of a record $105.2 billion in shares.He also said, "The best-informed market participants are sending a clear signal that the party on Wall Street is going to end soon. When corporate insiders are bailing, the shorts are covering and investors are borrowing to buy, it generally pays to be a seller rather than a buyer of stock."
















Now 5 days later, we have witnessed a 4 day selloff, a sharp surge in the VIX and a tripling of the volume as the SPDR GOLD TRUST has gapped and ran. This move is occurring despite a lack of significant selling of the dollar.Gee, I wonder where all of that big “insider money” is going? What do they know that we don’t? Will there be a replay of last Fall? Is a major bank in trouble? FAZ anyone? How bout some GLD?






Sunday, August 30, 2009

Top Ten Ways to Lose Money by: Kerry

Everyone has a Top Ten….. Here is top ten ways to lose money trading. Add some additional ways if you like.

  1. No Specific Trade Plan or System, trading impulsively.
  2. Trading a New System/Strategy without knowing its expectancy. Do not back test or forward test, trading on blind faith.
  3. Un-realistic expectations, looking for get rich quick systems and searching for the Holy Grail. Looking to trade for the wrong reasons.
  4. Trading too large a size for the account. (#3 feeds #4)
  5. Making too many trades for the account size. Trading is boring many times and most people want to be entertained.
  6. Trading on hope rather than accepting the markets actions. The market will do whatever it is going to do, regardless of your thoughts, hopes, and dreams.
  7. Un-willingness to accept a small loss. All large losses begin as a small loss.
  8. Letting winners turn into losers. Only believers in Buy and Hold strategy should never sell. A profit cannot be taken unless you are willing to potentially leave some money on the table.
  9. Un-willing to scratch a trade when the trade is not working as planned, the trader switches to #6.
  10. Not reviewing past performance and learn from mistakes. Do not expect different results if you keep doing the same mistakes over and over. Keep doing what you are doing and you will most likely keep getting what you are getting.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Long-base opportunity in SYT by Grant C

Here's a potential trade that offers lots of promise, but is ST/OB so not suitable for next week's Spike pick. SYT is all about long bases and moves within the Bollinger Bands. After hitting a yearly high around 51 in January, SYT has been grinding sideways, oscillating back and forth between the bands. Note on the weekly chart that all this sideways stuff is along the 50% Fib retracement from the 2008 high to the 2008 low. Now on the daily, the squeeze is in play and SYT has touched the upper band signaling it is ready to move. I'm inclined to wait for some sort of retracement--maybe 1-3 days--to the rising EMA before buying. Eventually, we should get a nice rise out of this long base and lots of chances to trade it back and forth from the rising EMA to the upper bands.

Monday, August 3, 2009

The "Big Mac" Play - by Stephen M


Stephen is one of the top-performing SpikeTrade Members. In this post he shares a trading idea with the group - AE
This setup is ringing the bell for me. I call it my BIG MAC play, or more specifically: BIG MAC-Summer, 5/5, C&H . Summer refers to the identified market season as indicated by the weekly MACDH. 5/5 indicates:
1 - bullish S&P chart
2 - bullish VIX
3 - weekly MACDH divergence
4 - MACD lines rising from below zero
5 - EMA rising
C&H refers to Cup & Handle, a Classical chart pattern.
There is good support at 13.80, for a low risk – big potential reward trade.
GLTA,
Stephen M.


Tuesday, May 12, 2009

GM, a major speculative idea - by Eric F

This is a major speculative idea. I have been waiting for several weeks watching and waiting and today it began to form. Are we seeing what I think we are seeing? A major bullish divergence? Let’s watch and see. Price points of interest maybe cracking 1.27?

I hope it goes to a $1…Am I too early? It looks like it may have a little more room to run on the downside but I am not sure of how much it can run…Although one thing I know- It will either GO TO ZERO or snap back to life…

Thanks,
Eric F